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    21.01.2011

    The deep-rooted Polish wariness of Russia

    The Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) has done a good job. This week, it has presented its findings on the causes of a plane crash that killed the Polish president. As is known, the previous reports contained flaws. The Polish side posed questions and lodged claims. As a result, most of the flaws have been removed.

    Nevertheless, this story should in no way be considered finished. 

    Even if the IAC report had been impeccable, there is still a demand for anti-Russian rhetoric among the Polish elite. First and foremost, this rhetoric is personified by the late President Kaczynski. Naturally, this demand strikes a deep chord, not only among the Polish elite, but also in the hearts of a considerable part of the Polish population. It is comforting that the anti-Russian theme is getting more and more marginalized, which becomes evident from the results of the recent local elections in Poland. However, Donald Tusk’s claims come largely as a reaction to this public demand for anti-Russian rhetoric. That is why Poland will go ahead criticizing Russia, despite the fact that the report’s final conclusions are logical and authentic.

    The report’s main sensation, that the commander-in-chief of the Polish Air Force was obviously drunk when he was issuing instructions to the pilots in the cockpit, is further aggravating the situation. The human unwillingness to come to terms with such accusations can be understood, but it will definitely produce an impact on Poland’s future stance.

     In fact, the root cause of Poland’s mistrustful attitude to the Russian investigation is a centuries-old tradition of Russophobia. It should be admitted that the Poles do have objective reasons to dislike us. This explains Donald Tusk’s recent remarks and the demonstrative absence of Polish government representatives at the news conference on Wednesday.

    It seems that under these circumstances there is only one thing that Russia can do: to continue its systemic planned work with Polish elites and the Polish society. Naturally, no quick progress should be expected on this path. However, Russia should not humiliate itself and “beg” Poland to have a good attitude. Nonetheless, it is undoubtedly in Russia’s interest to have Poland as an ally. It is obvious that Poland, as a potential alternative center inside the European Union, has serious resources of influence in European politics.

     Once, a good friend of mine, Mr. Severin, a European MP from Romania, made an interesting classification of East European countries. He distinguished several types of countries, such as “Moscow’s Trojan Horses” and “the Cold War Knights”. When, during our conversation, I added Poland to that second category, all of a sudden Mr. Severin objected and said to me: “No, Poland is Russia’s disappointed Trojan Horse.” Therefore, the task today is to find a distinct distribution of roles, because it is exactly at this moment that Poland is searching for its place in a European geopolitical setup.

    So far, it is failing to find it. The role of a US satellite in the region is impossible for Poland at the moment. On one hand, the Americans have significantly cut their presence in Europe and influence on European affairs. On the other, Poland clearly lacks the economic might and influence to become Europe’s alternative center. That is why the option of co-operation with Russia really exists, but it is hindered by serious historical restrictions and the ideology of the re-creation of the Rech Pospolita state in a new format. It is no accident that Polish diplomats, businessmen and non-commercial organizations are so active in Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania.

    This imperial past, along with a strong anti-Russian sentiment, is largely determining the behavior of the Polish elite and preventing the two countries from building mutual understanding and trust.

    Evgeny Minchenko for RT Politics