Yanukovych, backed openly by the Kremlin when he last stood for president in 2004, and Tymoshenko, the onetime darling of the Orange Revolution, go into a runoff vote on Feb. 7, having won 35 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively, according to preliminary figures from Ukraine's central election commission.

Yushchenko, whose reputation with voters has been tarnished by infighting and economic woes since he was swept into power by the 2004 Orange Revolution, got just over 5 per cent.

The election comes as Ukraine's economy has gone into freefall, collapsing amid the global crisis.
Regardless of who wins the runoff, relations with Russia will be more sober and commercial-based rather than ideological, as they were under Yushchenko, analysts said. 

"What is important is that neither candidate wants NATO membership," said Alexander Rahr, who heads the Russia and Eurasia programme at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
"Yanukovych is being described as pro-Russian, Tymoshenko is being described as pro-Western, but these are old fashioned terms," said Rahr. "Both candidates have changed since 2004, they are both pragmatic in what they want from relations with Russia and the European Union."

A focus on pragmatic interests rather than ideology may also help end the annual gas wars between Russia and Ukraine, although disputes about gas prices are still inevitable.
"For Russia, it might be faster to strike a deal with Tymoshenko than Yanukovych," Yevgeny Minchenko, an analyst at the Centre for Political Expertise and a chairman at the Moscow-based Ukraine Institute, said by telephone from Kiev. But from the Russian perspective, "Yanukovych is more understandable and predictable," he said. Yanukovych's Party of the Regions "is a party of big business. Ideology is secondary for them, the interests of business are primary."

For Tymoshenko, Ukraine's prime minister, whose relations with former ally Yushchenko soured soon after he came to power, the question is how much of the other candidates' votes she will be able to garner in the second round, which is expected to be a close race.

Former Central Bank chief Sergei Tigipko, who polled 13 per cent, and former Foreign Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk, who polled 7 per cent, have both ruled out endorsing Tymoshenko or Yanukovych but may succumb to the temptation to trade their support for the chance of being appointed prime minister under either candidate.

Minchenko predicted that about 70 per cent of Tigipko's vote could go to Yanukovych because most of his supporters are based in the Russian-speaking southeast of the country, which has traditionally backed Yanukovych.
"Tymoshenko will try to paint Yanukovych as a [politician with a shameful past]. She is also heavily campaigning with the electorate of other candidates - she is promising change to those who voted for Tigipko and Yatsenyuk, and strength and independence to those who voted for Yushchenko. For Yanukovych, the agenda is different - it's us against the government that bankrupted itself," said Minchenko.
"But I think Yanukovych's communication with other candidates' electorates is weaker" than Tymoshenko's, and this could hamper his challenge, said Minchenko.

Another question is how Yanukovych or Tymoshenko will fare in unfreezing Ukraine's relations with the International Monetary Fund and securing loans for the cash-strapped government, which was ravaged by the economic crisis. Analysts differed on whether Yanukovych or Tymoshenko would be more successful in securing loans.

"We think that Mr. Yanukovych offers the best chance of bringing the stability needed to put Ukraine's economic recovery on track," said David Oxley, an economist at London-based Capital Economics. "Encouragingly, he has pledged to stick with the IMF/EU loan programme, but equally he has stopped short of detailing how he would reduce the budget deficit in line with the Fund's conditions."
 
Ed Bentley contributed to this report.

Anna Arutunyan

Moscow News №01 2010